India and China Reach Agreement on Patrolling Arrangement Along LAC

Context of the Agreement

The agreement primarily focuses on patrolling in the Depsang and Demchok areas, crucial regions that have witnessed ongoing disputes between the two nations. According to reports from news agency PTI, this development comes after extensive diplomatic engagement, with negotiators from both countries conducting multiple rounds of discussions in recent weeks. Misri highlighted that these negotiations led to an accord aimed at addressing the issues that emerged from the 2020 standoff, marking a significant milestone in India-China relations.

Bilateral Meetings and Diplomatic Engagement

While an official announcement regarding the patrolling arrangement is yet to be made, expectations are high for a bilateral meeting between Prime Minister Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping during the BRICS summit. This informal gathering of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa presents an opportunity for both leaders to discuss not only the border issues but also broader geopolitical dynamics in the region.

The last formal meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs occurred on August 29 in Beijing. During this meeting, both sides engaged in constructive dialogue to address the situation along the LAC, emphasizing the necessity for restoring peace and tranquility. The officials underscored that respect for the LAC is essential for the normalization of bilateral relations.

Key Areas of Focus: Depsang and Demchok

The Depsang Plains and Demchok regions have emerged as focal points in the ongoing negotiations. The Depsang Plains have been a particularly contentious area, where Chinese troops previously obstructed Indian patrols near critical bottlenecks. The recent agreement suggests that Chinese forces will revert to their earlier positions, allowing Indian troops to resume patrols without obstruction—a development that indicates progress in de-escalating tensions in this vital region.

Conversely, the situation in Demchok remains less clear. While patrolling is expected to resume, it has yet to be confirmed whether Indian troops can access the Charding La pass as they did before the 2020 standoff. A noteworthy sign of progress includes the dismantling of a Chinese tent erected during the standoff, suggesting some movement toward reducing tensions.

Remaining Challenges and the Path Ahead

Despite the positive developments, it is crucial to recognize that the agreement on patrolling does not equate to complete disengagement. Defence sources indicate that while this is a significant step, full troop withdrawal is not anticipated in the immediate future, except for the customary winter withdrawals. The Indian Army is expected to maintain a forward deployment along the LAC, preparing for any potential escalations as winter approaches.

A phased approach has been proposed by India, aiming for a gradual resolution of the border dispute. The initial phase emphasizes disengagement from areas of close troop proximity, followed by de-escalation efforts to reduce troop and equipment numbers. Eventually, this approach aims for de-induction to restore the status quo that existed prior to the April 2020 standoff.

Trust Issues and Military Buildup

While the resumption of patrolling is a promising development, deep-seated mistrust continues to characterize India-China relations. Reports indicate that China has been expanding its military infrastructure along the LAC, leading Indian defence officials to remain cautious regarding Beijing’s intentions. Reinforced Chinese military bases near the border suggest that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) may not return to pre-standoff positions anytime soon.

In response to these developments, India has bolstered its military readiness along the LAC. The Indian Army has increased stockpiling of supplies and enhanced operational preparedness, particularly in sensitive regions like eastern Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh.

Economic Implications and Broader Context

The border standoff has not only strained military relations but also impacted economic ties between India and China. In the aftermath of the standoff, India’s government tightened scrutiny on Chinese investments, resulting in the halting of several major projects. Despite some recent softening of this stance, significant deterrents remain, with billions of dollars in Chinese investments still on hold. Nevertheless, trade between the two countries has surged, with Indian imports from China increasing by 56% since the onset of the tensions.

General Upendra Dwivedi, Chief of the Indian Army, emphasized the necessity for sustained diplomatic efforts beyond the recent gains, stating, “The two sides need to tackle difficult issues beyond the ‘low-hanging fruit’ already grasped. Diplomatic progress must be followed by concrete actions on the ground.”

Conclusion: A Fragile Step Forward

The agreement to resume patrolling along the LAC represents a critical step toward reducing tensions between India and China. However, it is merely the beginning of a protracted process aimed at restoring normalcy along the border. Much will depend on the outcome of future discussions, particularly the potential Modi-Xi bilateral meeting at the BRICS summit. Until full disengagement and de-escalation are achieved, the border remains a sensitive issue, with both nations closely monitoring each other’s military movements and diplomatic maneuvers.

As India and China navigate these complex dynamics, the international community will be watching closely, hopeful that this renewed engagement can lead to a lasting resolution of one of Asia’s most pressing geopolitical challenges.