A Shrinking Shoreline
The once-thriving beaches and bustling ports of the Caspian Sea are vanishing. Coastal cities, like Aktau in Kazakhstan, have seen the water recede dramatically, exposing barren, stony ground where families once enjoyed leisure by the water. Activists and local residents alike are deeply concerned about this rapid transformation, which they regard as an emotional loss tied to their identity and heritage.
The Caspian Sea is fed primarily by the Volga River, which provides about 80% of its inflow. However, the construction of numerous dams—over 40 already in place and 18 more planned—has drastically reduced this vital water source. This alteration has led to an unbalanced water regime, exacerbating the decline of the sea.
The Impact of Climate Change
While rising global sea levels due to climate change pose a significant threat to coastal areas worldwide, the situation for landlocked bodies like the Caspian is different. The sea relies on a delicate balance of inflow from rivers and rainfall, both of which are now affected by climate change. Increased evaporation rates and erratic rainfall patterns are compounding the crisis.
Research indicates that water levels in the Caspian have been falling steadily since the mid-1990s, with an acceleration in decline since 2005. Projections suggest that levels could drop between 8 to 18 meters (26 to 59 feet) by the end of the century, and under less favorable scenarios, reductions could reach as much as 30 meters (98 feet).
Ecological Ramifications
The consequences of this decline extend far beyond human communities. The Caspian Sea is home to a unique array of wildlife, including endangered species such as the wild sturgeon, which accounts for 90% of the world’s caviar production. The sea’s isolation has also led to the development of unique species adapted to its specific conditions.
As water levels recede, the oxygen levels in the depths of the Caspian are decreasing, threatening these unique species with extinction. The situation is dire for Caspian seals as well; their pupping sites are shifting and disappearing, leaving them vulnerable to pollution and overfishing.
Lakes That Have Dried or Are Drying Up
The crisis of the Caspian Sea is part of a larger global trend of lakes drying up. Here are some notable examples:
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- Aral Sea (Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan): Once one of the largest lakes in the world, it has nearly disappeared due to Soviet-era irrigation projects that diverted rivers feeding it. The water level has dropped drastically, leading to ecological and economic devastation.
Video showing the change in surface area of the Aral Sea over time pic.twitter.com/HSyedKy5CF
— Epic Maps 🗺️ (@Locati0ns) October 10, 2021
.@NASA_EO sees the shrinking Aral Sea in 2000 & 2014, once the 4th largest lake in the world http://t.co/aIaHfpqLTj pic.twitter.com/ztUKZYnjfT
— NASA (@NASA) September 30, 2014
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- Lake Urmia (Iran): Once a vibrant saline lake, it has shrunk by about 90% since the 1970s due to damming, water diversion for agriculture, and climate change, resulting in severe environmental consequences.
Visiting Lake Urmia today.
2nd largest saltwater lake in the world – now almost dried up.
Iran working to bring it back to life. pic.twitter.com/JwvY7WT6MZ— Erik Solheim (@ErikSolheim) February 25, 2017
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- Lake Poopó (Bolivia): Once the second-largest lake in Bolivia, it has largely dried up due to climate change and water diversion for agriculture, impacting local communities and wildlife.
Lake Poopó is dry for the third year in a row. Learn more about communities and #climatechange: https://t.co/yUXT1ck4ht pic.twitter.com/n5BzuVYW4N
— World Economic Forum (@wef) September 9, 2018
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- Lake Chad (Chad, Cameroon, Niger, Nigeria): Once a vast lake, it has shrunk to just 1/20th of its original size since the 1960s due to climate change, over-extraction of water, and desertification.
This used to be the 6th largest lake on Earth. Can you believe it? Now, lake Chad is a desert. #BlueDot #Chad pic.twitter.com/mbsvFJ1Iez
— Alexander Gerst (@Astro_Alex) March 30, 2016
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- Salton Sea (California, USA): This saline lake has been shrinking due to water diversion and agricultural practices. Increased salinity and pollution are harming local wildlife.
🔎 The Salton Sea is rapidly drying, exposing more lakebed & increasing wind-blown dust in nearby communities. This dust contains harmful particles like toxic metals, leading to public health concerns especially for children in the area.#SaltonSea #EnvironmentalJustice #CCVHealth pic.twitter.com/1QfvsKrbGZ
— USC Enviro Health (@USCEnviroHealth) October 24, 2024
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- Lake Meredith (Texas, USA): Once a large reservoir, it has faced significant reductions in water levels due to drought, water management issues, and increased evaporation rates.
- Great Salt Lake (Utah, USA): This largest saltwater lake in the Western Hemisphere is experiencing drastic declines due to water diversion and climate change, leading to ecological imbalances and health concerns.
- Lake Meredith (Texas, USA): Once a large reservoir, it has faced significant reductions in water levels due to drought, water management issues, and increased evaporation rates.
Utah’s Great Salt Lake is running out of waterhttps://t.co/tKwc2RbpFn pic.twitter.com/llRG1naxwv
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) July 26, 2022
Geopolitical Tensions
The decline of the Caspian Sea is not just an environmental issue; it is also a geopolitical one. The competition among the five bordering nations for dwindling resources could escalate into conflicts over fishing rights, water access, and energy reserves. As the shoreline shifts, countries may find themselves in disputes over territorial claims, leading to heightened tensions in an already complex region.
The Way Forward
Addressing the crisis of the Caspian Sea requires urgent, collective action from all five bordering nations. The potential consequences of inaction could be devastating, not only for the environment but also for regional stability.
The upcoming COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, presents a critical opportunity for global leaders to address these pressing issues. Discussions around climate action and environmental conservation must include specific strategies to tackle the challenges facing the Caspian Sea.
Conclusion
The plight of the Caspian Sea is a clarion call for urgent action to protect one of the world’s most significant natural resources. As the sea continues to shrink, the interwoven fates of the environment, local communities, and geopolitics demand our attention and action. It is imperative for all stakeholders to recognize the importance of this vital body of water and work collaboratively to ensure its survival for future generations. Only through concerted efforts can we hope to restore the Caspian Sea to a state of health and stability, preserving its rich biodiversity and the livelihoods of those who depend on it.
