In this recent notice, India asserted that it would cease all discussions related to the treaty until the entire agreement is renegotiated. This assertive stance marks a pivotal shift in India’s strategy regarding its water management, particularly concerning the rivers flowing into Jammu and Kashmir.
The backdrop to this development is Pakistan’s immediate response, urging India to continue complying with the existing treaty. On September 19, 2024, Pakistan reiterated its position, requesting that India adhere to the terms of the treaty without attempting any changes.
India’s assertiveness can be attributed to three key factors:
- Population Demographics: India has pointed out that the rivers in question are crucial for meeting the needs of approximately 59 million people, especially as the population in Jammu and Kashmir has surged from 35 million to over 122 million in the last 60 years. This dramatic increase has heightened the demand for water resources.
- Clean Energy Development: India aims to establish hydroelectric power plants to harness the potential of its water resources in Jammu and Kashmir, estimated at around 20,000 megawatts. However, discussions with Pakistan have stalled, hindering progress on projects like the Kishanganga and Ratle hydroelectric plants.
- Cross-Border Terrorism: The persistent issue of cross-border terrorism, supported by non-state actors operating with Pakistan’s backing, has also influenced India’s call for a reevaluation of the treaty.
The Indus Water Treaty, signed in 1960, has successfully governed water distribution between India and Pakistan for over six decades. Under the treaty, the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) are allocated to Pakistan, while the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) are designated for India. However, the treaty allows India to utilize the western rivers for certain projects, which has led to ongoing disputes.
As the situation evolves, India is prioritizing the better utilization of water resources in Jammu and Kashmir. This strategy includes the potential construction of dams on these rivers to optimize water flow and address local needs, ultimately pressuring Pakistan to engage in treaty renegotiations.
Experts have noted that India’s recent aggressive stance is surprising, given the historical context of upstream states negotiating with downstream states. Despite the challenges, India’s commitment to diplomatic dialogue remains evident, leaving room for potential negotiations.
The future of the Indus Water Treaty hangs in the balance, and the implications of these developments will likely be felt in the broader geopolitical landscape. As India and Pakistan navigate this complex issue, the global community watches closely.
