According to the latest World Energy Outlook 2024 report, India is poised to face a higher increase in energy demand than any other country over the next decade. This surge is largely driven by India’s rapid economic growth, urbanization, and expanding infrastructure, with significant implications for global energy markets.
About the World Energy Outlook 2024
The World Energy Outlook is an annual report published by the International Energy Agency (IEA), widely regarded as the most authoritative global source for energy analysis and projections. The report identifies major trends in energy demand and supply and examines their impact on energy security, emissions, and economic development.
Global Energy Outlook: New Trends Emerging
The 2024 report projects that the world is entering a new energy context. Despite persistent geopolitical challenges, the global energy supply is expected to experience an abundance of various fuels and technologies. Highlights from the report include:
- Surplus of Oil and LNG: An excess of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected in the latter half of the 2020s.
- Low-Emissions Energy: Low-emissions energy sources are projected to account for more than half of the world’s electricity by 2030.
- Demand Peaks for Fossil Fuels: Coal, oil, and gas demand is expected to peak by the end of this decade.
- Electricity Growth: Global electricity demand is set to accelerate, adding the equivalent of Japan’s total annual electricity consumption every year.
India’s Role in the Global Energy Landscape
India stands out in the World Energy Outlook 2024 as a key driver of global energy demand. As the world’s most populous country with a rapidly growing economy, India’s energy needs are projected to grow substantially across all sectors.
- Transport Sector: The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) projects India will add over 12,000 cars to its roads every day through 2035.
- Infrastructure Growth: India is expected to add over 1 billion square meters of built-up space annually—larger than South Africa’s total built space.
- Industrial Expansion: Iron and steel production is expected to grow by 70% by 2035, while cement output will rise by nearly 55%.
- Cooling Demand: The stock of air conditioners is projected to grow more than 4.5 times, with electricity demand for air conditioning in 2035 surpassing Mexico’s total expected electricity consumption.
Energy Sources: A Mixed Outlook for India
India’s energy mix is expected to remain diverse, with coal continuing to play a significant role despite the push for cleaner energy. Key projections include:
- Coal Dominance: India is expected to add about 60 gigawatts of new coal-fired power capacity by 2030, with coal-based electricity generation projected to increase by over 15%.
- Coal in Industry: In industries such as steel, cement, and manufacturing, coal accounted for 40% of energy use in 2023. By 2035, coal use in these industries is expected to increase by 50%.
- Renewable Growth: Despite coal’s strong position, India is making strides in renewable energy, with electricity generation capacity expected to nearly triple to 1,400 gigawatts by 2035.
Challenges and Opportunities
India’s rapid growth presents both challenges and opportunities. As the country ramps up its energy consumption, balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability will be crucial. The increasing reliance on coal, while necessary to meet short-term energy needs, may hinder India’s longer-term goals of reducing emissions and advancing toward a low-carbon future.
At the same time, India’s potential to expand renewable energy capacity offers hope for a greener future. With continued investment in clean energy technologies, India can position itself as a global leader in the energy transition, even as it navigates the complexities of its growing energy demand.
